Thursday, December 31, 2020

Mitch McConnell's role: Gatekeeper of the United States Senate?

Mitch McConnell: A Legacy of Obstruction

By Anisha Singh and Nathaniel Glynn  July 14, 2016, 9:01 am

Next Tuesday marks 125 days since President Barack Obama nominated D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals Chief Judge Merrick Garland, an eminently qualified judge, to fill the Supreme Court seat left vacant by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia. The Senate’s inaction on the Garland nomination is the longest a Supreme Court nominee has ever waited for a hearing or confirmation. When the Senate, led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), reconvenes in September, the wait for a vote—let alone a hearing—will have grown to 176 days.

The blame for this unprecedented delay can largely be placed at the feet of Sen. McConnell. Under his leadership, the Senate has refused to do its job of offering advice and consent on the nominee. Moreover, by this and other actions—or more rightly put, inaction—Sen. McConnell has all but sealed his legacy as an obstructionist.

The impact of this obstruction is already being felt by millions. Because the Senate refuses to do its job, the Supreme Court was unable to settle several important legal issues this term. For example, on June 23, the Court issued a nondecision—a 4-4 tied vote—in a critical immigration case that leaves an estimated 4 million immigrants vulnerable to deportation and more than 6 million citizens fearing deportation of their loved ones.

Since Sen. McConnell assumed the role of majority leader in January 2015, he has shown an unwillingness to make any sort of progress in the Senate, particularly in confirming federal judges. As a result, the number of U.S. District and Circuit court vacancies in the federal judiciary is growing. Vacancies under Sen. McConnell jumped from 40 when he took office in 2015 to 79 in late June 2016, a 97.5 percent increase. Federal courts face severe backlogs because of these vacancies. Plaintiffs alleging discrimination in the workplace must wait longer for their case to be heard; companies accused of violating environmental law go unpunished; and indigent criminal defendants are denied a speedy trial.

Sen. McConnell’s obstruction of Chief Judge Garland’s confirmation is particularly shocking when compared with the length of confirmation proceedings for recent justices—even when the presidency and the Senate were controlled by different parties. Although a Republican Senate has not confirmed a Democratic nominee since 1895, Democratic senates have confirmed recent Republican nominees, including Justices Anthony Kennedy, David Souter, and Clarence Thomas. Nominated by a Republican president and confirmed by a Democratic Senate, the three were confirmed in 65, 69, and 99 days, respectively. Meanwhile, Chief Judge Garland has yet to receive a hearing.

The current Senate also lags far behind previous senates in lower court confirmations. The current Senate confirmed just 19 federal judges in the past 18 months. A Senate led by Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) gave President George W. Bush 68 confirmations over the last two years of his presidency. President Bill Clinton had 73 confirmations, and President George H.W. Bush had 122, including Justice Clarence Thomas, over the same period—also with a Senate led by the opposing party.

Judicial vacancies and emergencies have dramatically increased under Sen. McConnell when compared with the last two years of President George W. Bush’s presidency. During the last two years of President Bush’s tenure, the number of vacancies dropped, and remained below 50, falling to a low of 34 in fall 2008.

The same jump is seen in the number of judicial emergencies, a designation used when an understaffed bench experiences heavy caseloads and severe backlogs. Under Sen. McConnell’s leadership, the number of judicial emergencies jumped from 12 at the beginning of the 114th Congress to 30 as of late June 2016. The Democratic Senate during the last two years of President Bush’s term reduced judicial emergencies from 25 to 15.

The shockingly low number of confirmations allowed under Sen. McConnell, coupled with the sharp increase in judicial vacancies and emergencies, has created a crisis in the judiciary and has denied countless Americans their day in court

McConnell’s words over the years don’t match his current actions

In recent years, Sen. McConnell has made numerous statements suggesting that he wants to break the deadlock in the Senate and resume normal business:

“For the good of the country, we need to work together to restore the Senate to its purpose.” —Sen. McConnell from the Senate floor, January 2014

“The majority in the Senate is prepared to restore the Senate’s traditions and precedents to ensure that regardless of party, any president’s judicial nominees, after full and fair debate, receive a simple up-or-down vote on the Senate floor. It is time to move away from advise and obstruct and get back to advise and consent.” —Sen. McConnell as Senate Republican whip, May 2005

“The Frist fairness rule guarantees up-or-down votes for every circuit court or Supreme Court nomination, regardless of which party controls the Senate or the White House . . .  It guarantees every president that their judicial nominees will get through committee and get a vote on the Senate floor.” —Sen. McConnell supporting the Frist fairness rule, May 2005

“We should also be able to agree that too many judicial posts have been left empty too long. But we cannot confirm judges if they don’t get hearings.” —Sen. McConnell lamenting judicial vacancies, January 2008

McConnell is the problem

Sen. McConnell’s tenure as majority leader has been marked by stagnation. Because of his inaction, federal courts are in trouble. Across the country, court dockets are massively backlogged with judges struggling to keep up. As a consequence, civil plaintiffs and criminal defendants are forced to sit on their hands and watch helplessly as their cases are pushed further and further back.

The Supreme Court deadlocked 4-4 in four important cases during the 2015–16 term. These deadlocks do not establish Supreme Court precedent and have left important issues unsettled, such as the fate of millions of unauthorized immigrants. In other important cases, the Court has chosen to move the cases back to lower courts rather than issue a definitive ruling. The instability on the high court exists only because of the Senate’s refusal to confirm a nominee who is widely recognized as highly qualified.

This crisis in the judiciary can easily be traced back to Sen. McConnell’s obstructionism and his failure to fulfill the Senate’s constitutional mandate to offer “advice and consent.” This inaction is not only dangerous but also deeply hypocritical.

Sen. Mitch McConnell owes the American people an explanation for his blatant obstructionism.

Anisha Singh is the campaign manager for the Legal Progress team at the Center for American Progress. Nathaniel Glynn is a legal intern for Legal Progress and a law student at the Georgetown University Law Center.

Wednesday, December 30, 2020

From Great Conjunction of 2020, to a Bright New Year in 2021...


A great conjunction is a conjunction of the planets Jupiter and Saturn, when the two planets appear closest together in the sky.

Great conjunctions occur approximately every 20 years when Jupiter "overtakes" Saturn in its orbit. They are named "great" for being by far the rarest of the conjunctions between naked-eye planets (i.e. excluding Uranus and Neptune).

The spacing between the planets varies from conjunction to conjunction with most events being 0.5 to 1.3 degrees (30 to 78 arcminutes, or 1 to 2.5 times the width of a full moon). Very close conjunctions happen much less frequently (though the maximum of 1.3° is still close by inner planet standards): separations of less than 10 arcminutes have only happened four times since 1200, most recently in 2020.

In History

Despite mathematical errors and some disagreement among astrologers about when trigons began, belief in the significance of such events generated a stream of publications that grew steadily until the end of the 16th century. As the great conjunction of 1583 was last in the water trigon it was widely supposed to herald apocalyptic changes; a papal bull against divination was issued in 1586 but as nothing significant happened by the feared event of 1603, public interest rapidly died. By the start of the next trigon, modern scientific consensus had long-established astrology as pseudoscience, and planetary alignments were no longer perceived as omens.

The most recent great conjunction occurred on 21 December 2020, and the next will occur on 4 November 2040. During the 2020 great conjunction, the two planets were separated in the sky by 6 arcminutes at their closest point, which was the closest distance between the two planets since 1623. The closeness is the result of the conjunction occurring in the vicinity of one of the two longitudes where the two orbits appear to intersect when viewed from the Sun (which has a point of view similar to Earth).

Because 19.859 years is equal to 1.674 Jupiter orbits and 0.674 Saturn orbits, three of these periods come close to a whole number of revolutions. This is why the longitude cycle, as shown in the diagram to the right, has a triangular pattern. The three points of the triangle revolve in the same direction as the planets at the rate of approximately one-sixth of a revolution per four centuries thus creating especially close conjunctions on an approximately four-century cycle. The longitudes of close great conjunctions are currently about 307.4 and 127.4 degrees, in the constellations of Capricornus and Cancer respectively. The position of Earth in its orbit, however, can make the planets appear up to about 10 degrees ahead of or behind their heliocentric longitude.

Saturn's orbit plane is inclined 2.485 degrees relative to Earth's, and Jupiter's is inclined 1.303 degrees. The ascending nodes of both planets are similar (100.6 degrees for Jupiter and 113.7 degrees for Saturn), meaning if Saturn is above or below Earth's orbital plane Jupiter usually is too. Because these nodes align so well it would be expected that no closest approach will ever be much worse than the difference between the two inclinations. Indeed, between year 1 and 3000, the maximum conjunction distances were 1.3 degrees in 1306 and 1940. Conjunctions in both years occurred when the planets were tilted most out of the plane: longitude 206 degrees (therefore above the plane) in 1306, and longitude 39 degrees (therefore below the plane) in 1940.

7 BC

When studying the great conjunction of 1603, Johannes Kepler thought that the Star of Bethlehem might have been the occurrence of a great conjunction. He calculated that a triple conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn occurred in 7 BC (−6 using astronomical year numbering); A triple conjunction is a conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn at or near their opposition to the Sun. In this scenario, Jupiter and Saturn will occupy the same right ascension on three occasions or same ecliptic longitude on three occasions depending on which definition of "conjunction" one uses (this is due to apparent retrograde motion and happens within months). The most recent triple conjunction occurred in 1980 and 1981 while the next will be in 2238 and 2239.

1563

The astronomers from the Cracow Academy (Jan Muscenius, Stanisław Jakobejusz, Nicolaus Schadeck, Petrus Probosczowicze, and others) observed the great conjunction of 1563 to compare Alfonsine tables (based on a geocentric model) with the Prutenic Tables (based on Copernican heliocentrism). In the Prutenic Tables the astronomers found Jupiter and Saturn so close to each other that Jupiter covered Saturn (actual angular separation was 6.8 minutes on 25 August 1563). The Alfonsine tables suggested that the conjunction should be observed on another day but on the day indicated by the Alfonsine tables the angular separation was a full 141 minutes. The Cracow professors suggested following the more accurate Copernican predictions and between 1578 and 1580 Copernican heliocentrism was lectured on three times by Valentin Fontani.

2020

The great conjunction of 2020 was the closest since 1623 and eighth closest of the first three millennia AD, with a minimum separation between the two planets of 6.1 arcminutes. This great conjunction was also the most easily visible close conjunction since 1226 (as the previous close conjunctions in 1563 and 1623 were closer to the Sun and therefore more difficult to see). It occurred seven weeks after the heliocentric conjunction, when Jupiter and Saturn shared the same heliocentric longitude.

The closest separation occurred on 21 December at 18:22 UTC, when Jupiter was 0.1° south of Saturn and 30° east of the Sun. This meant both planets appeared together in the field of view of most small- and medium-sized telescopes (though they were distinguishable from each other without optical aid). During the closest approach, both planets appeared to be a binary object to the naked eye. From mid-northern latitudes, the planets were visible one hour after sunset at less than 15° in altitude.


The conjunction attracted considerable media attention, with news sources calling it the "Christmas Star" due to the proximity of the date of the conjunction to Christmas, and for a great conjunction being one of the hypothesized explanations for the biblical Star of Bethlehem.